Guys, the lines put out this week are EXTREMELY sharp. If I were you, I would sit back and play a side only if value comes up. If you remember, I pegged Nemo right at 56-64, which puts 60 right smack dab in the middle of that range. Wait on this one and see if some value comes up. I would give the same advice with the Italian Job. There is probably a little bit more value here with the UNDER than with Finding Nemo, but, the line is still pretty sharp.
Looks like they are on to us.
My advice.....sit back and wait for value.
JP
Looks like they are on to us.
My advice.....sit back and wait for value.
JP
yeah, they are definitely learning. I just think under 60 seems a bit less likely than over, and will probably take the risk with the over which is at +100. I don't know, though, it could end up under-performing. Not the greatest advertising. 21 for IJ is pretty sharp as well, but maybe you'll end up being right, and it will go under. Gil has made some good points supporting the over, as well, though. A lot of people, including myself, will choose this movie over Finding Nemo.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Oren1:
Might take the over 21 for IJ as well. WSEX has it at 22.5, but it's -150 or so there. -115 both sides still at Oly. I might get hammered this week but f*ckit.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
Might take the over 21 for IJ as well. WSEX has it at 22.5, but it's -150 or so there. -115 both sides still at Oly. I might get hammered this week but f*ckit.
LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
I know I'm going against the grain... But what the hell, people aren't right all the time. My feeling is they could be wrong. Ed Norton's other heist themed picture,The Score, starring Robert DeDiro and Marlon Brando, did 19 million July 2001. I don't know... A lot of the Mojo crowd seems to be pretty young, and they don't seem too interested in IJ, hence the low predictions. I wonder if the older peeps will be enough to carry it, they certainly didn't shun the Score.
Oren, keep something else in mind. You tend to skew towards the over all the time. Remember that you tend to be biased, for whatever reason. Almost every week you think that these films will go over. Remember our little discussion on Anger Management?
As for the Score, you said it....19 mil, in wider release than this one. Secondly, this film does NOT have a Robert Deniro along side Norton (Charlize Theron and Marky Mark are NO Deniros). Thirdly, this film has just as much, if not MORE competition as the Score, with X2, Matrix, Finding Nemo, Bruce Almighty.
I think with your post, you really helped out the argument for the UNDER, not the OVER.
JP
As for the Score, you said it....19 mil, in wider release than this one. Secondly, this film does NOT have a Robert Deniro along side Norton (Charlize Theron and Marky Mark are NO Deniros). Thirdly, this film has just as much, if not MORE competition as the Score, with X2, Matrix, Finding Nemo, Bruce Almighty.
I think with your post, you really helped out the argument for the UNDER, not the OVER.
JP
I'm well aware that I made points for the under, I was just trying to be unbiased.
I took the under for Matrix and got burned, as olys number was a little low. Anger Management, who knows why that did 50 and BA did 70, could just be the summer season. Or that Jack just looked kinda old and scary in the previews. Deniros recent movies have been somewhat dissapointing at the b.o., the Score had slick advertiseing, sure and Dinero helped, too, plus the story looked interesting. They didn't give away the double cross in the preview, or did they.... they did, huh? Bruce Almighty definitely will steal some of it's thunder, but Nemo shouldn't really be all that much competition. I think the families alone bring that one big numbers. We've seen somewhat surprisingly big openings the last few weeks, I hope it continues.
If you are willing to lay -115 on the OVER 21 and you aren't willing to take back +140 on the OVER 22.5, then it's a bet you shouldn't be making at all, period. If you aren't confident that it will go over 22.5 then you shouldn't lay any money on it going over 21. That's the facts, man.
JP
JP
